Steamer projections: Minimal losses, substantial gains mark Detroit Tigers offseason

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Detroit Tigers general manager Al Avila and outfielder Justin Upton announce the latter’s signing with club during a Jan. 20 press conference. (Photo by Mark Gunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Since the Detroit Tigers played their last baseball of 2015, general manager Al Avila has been at work trying to turn a last-place club back into a contender. Whether he has done so remains to be seen as spring training approaches. But the Tigers have definitely improved on paper since the last season ended. Steamer Projections confirms their gains have been greater than their losses.

To recap, here are the 18 players who have left the organization since Oct. 5, not including minor league free agents:

Josh WilsonAlex AvilaRajai DavisRandy WolfTom GorzelannyAlfredo SimonJoe NathanAl Alburquerque, and Neftali Feliz elected to become free agents. Detroit traded Javier Betancourt, Manny PinaIan Krol, Gabe SpeierChad GreenLuis CessaKyle Lobstein, and Jefry MarteGuido Knudson was claimed off waivers.

Steamer predicts this bunch will net just 2.7 WAR in 2016 (removing those projected to end up with a negative number), with Avila and Simon combining to account for two-thirds of that value and only five others contributing above replacement level.

And here are the 10 players the Tigers have brought in to help right the ship:

Washington Nationals v New York Mets
Jordan Zimmerman pitches for the Washington Nationals during a game in August. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Justin UptonJordan ZimmermannJarrod SaltalamacchiaMike PelfreyMark Lowe, and Mike Aviles signed as free agents. Cameron MaybinJustin WilsonFrancisco Rodriguez, and Kody Eaves were acquired in trades.

Steamer projects this group will compile 9.5 WAR this year, with Upton at 3.4 (more than all the outgoing Tigers put together), Zimmerman at 2.4 and Maybin at 1.1.

That’s a net gain of 6.8 WAR for the offseason, according to Steamer. That’s statistically significant even considering how far off projections can be, especially for individual players.

However, it’s worth noting that the players Detroit acquired will make a little more than $70 million in 2016, not including potential bonuses. Meanwhile, it’s clear the Tigers’ outgoing players would have been much cheaper. Rajai Davis at $5.25 million, Neftali Feliz at $3.9 million, and Alex Avila at $2.5 million are the most expensive of the bunch under contract so far, and, though Simon and Nathan remain free agents, neither will break a team’s bank when they do sign deals.

Mike Ilitch probably has paid more than the going rate for each victory he has bought this winter, but no one will care if Upton and Zimmerman win his team a World Series.

Al Avila has more chances to tweak Detroit Tigers roster

By signing outfielder Justin Upton to a six-year deal worth $132.75 million, owner Mike Ilitch and general manager Al Avila gave the Detroit Tigers offense “more than a tweak.” Upton fills the last glaring hole on a team that last year finished more than 20 games behind the American League Central Division champions. But the move also increased the flexibility Avila has to fine-tune his club’s recalibrated roster even further.

As things stand, the Tigers have clear frontrunners to start at every position except center field, where Cameron Maybin and Anthony Gose likely will split the workload. That means 10 position players are relative locks heading into spring training, leaving three spots on the bench—assuming Detroit sticks with a traditional construction. To compete for those places, the Tigers have eight players on their 40-man roster.

Chicago White Sox v Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers catcher Bryan Holaday throws a ball during the first game of a September doubleheader against the Chicago White Sox. (Photo by Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Two are catchers. Conventional wisdom says Jarrod Saltalamacchia will be the backup on opening day. He has played in 538 major league games over the past five years, while Bryan Holaday has just 282 career plate appearances. Holaday, like starter James McCann and most of Detroit’s lineup, bats right-handed, while Saltalamacchia is a switch-hitter with power and has limited experience as a first baseman in case the club gets into a pinch. That leaves no room for Holaday, who would be an asset for the Toledo Mud Hens but is out of minor league options and would thus need to clear waivers to get there. Expect the Tigers to hold onto him for a bit, as 30-year-old catchers like Saltalamacchia can be susceptible to injuries. But if Holaday impresses in Lakeland, it could be worthwhile for Avila to shop him to other teams.

Three more in the mix are infielders—Mike Aviles, Andrew Romine, and Dixon Machado—at least one of whom Detroit will need to carry. And the other three are outfielders: Tyler Collins, Steven Moya, and Wynton Bernard. Bernard, Moya, and Machado are prospects who would have to light Grapefruit League competition absolutely on fire to earn a place in the big leagues. That leaves Aviles, Romine, and Collins for the final two roster spots. Collins, despite his promising left-handed bat, is the only one of that trio who has minor league options and the only one who really only plays one position—one the Tigers just spent more than an eighth of a billion dollars filling.

Detroit Tigers v Texas Rangers
Tyler Collins hits a two-run single for the Detroit Tigers during a game in September against the Texas Rangers. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Since he has options and would not need to clear waivers to go to the minor leagues, Collins’ situation has an extra layer of complexity. Detroit could simply hold on to him and let him play in Toledo for a third season. But this is a guy who played two years in college and has amassed 2,514 plate appearances as a professional, including 1,999 in the minors. (Check out this article that demonstrates decreased MLB production when a college player gets more than 2,500 plate appearances at the MiLB level.) He played fairly well in significant playing time for the Tigers last season after they traded Yoenis Cespedes and was expected to play an equally large role this year.

Collins might not be more than a fourth outfielder, but his potential will never be realized if he doesn’t find a spot in the major leagues—and fast. Detroit likely cannot offer him that spot, so it might be mutually beneficial for Avila to send him somewhere with a more spacious outfield. The first-year general manager has said he would “still like to have more depth in pitching.” One argument for holding onto Collins is the injury history of Victor Martinez, who would leave a huge hole in the lineup if he misses significant time again. But in that case, the Tigers could still turn to Moya or even Dean Green.

Holaday and Collins would not bring back anything overly impressive on the trade market, but they are both redundant pieces on Detroit’s roster and could enjoy much better opportunities elsewhere.